Donald Trump’s second term as president is anticipated to bring a mixed impact on African nations across trade, aid, security, and immigration.
Trade and Investment: Trump’s “America First” stance could lead to protectionist measures like a universal 10% income tariff on foreign goods, potentially impacting African exports. This would affect programs like the African Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa), which has been vital for African exports to the U.S. Although Trump considered cutting Agoa in his previous term, he may keep some initiatives, such as Prosper Africa and the Development Finance Corporation, to counter China’s economic influence.
Aid: Trump previously sought to reduce foreign aid and could revisit these cuts, especially if Republicans secure a stronger Congressional majority. Programs like Pepfar, which have been instrumental in combating HIV in Africa, may also face scrutiny or potential cuts, given opposition from anti-abortion lawmakers.
Immigration: With a firm stance on illegal immigration, Trump is likely to implement strict deportation policies and could revive restrictions on visas from African countries. This would likely impact African migrants, including those at the U.S.-Mexico border, as well as established communities fearing discrimination.
Security: Trump’s approach to security aid may be selective. While he has previously helped Nigeria in counterterrorism efforts, broader support for conflict zones like Sudan may be limited, particularly with his transactional approach to foreign policy. Russia’s growing presence in Africa could push the U.S. to maintain some support, but Trump’s stance on Russia suggests that his commitment may not be as strong as Biden’s administration.
In summary, Trump’s policies are likely to emphasize U.S. interests more narrowly, with possible reductions in aid and stricter immigration policies, balanced by selective trade and security engagements based on strategic interests.
